-Oil prices rose on Monday after the United States clinched a trade deal with the European Union and may extend a tariff pause with China, relieving concerns that higher levies could have hurt economic activity and limited fuel demand.

Brent crude futures inched up 61 cents, or 0.89%, to $69.05 a barrel by 0647 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $65.75 a barrel, up 59 cents, or 0.91%.

The U.S.-European Union trade deal and a possible extension in the U.S.-China tariff pause are supporting global financial markets and oil prices, IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore said.

“With the risk of a prolonged trade war and the importance of the August tariff deadlines being steadily defused, markets have responded positively,” he added in a note.

Sunday’s U.S.-EU framework trade pact sets an import tariff of 15% on most EU goods, half the threatened rate. The deal averted a bigger trade war between two allies that account for almost one-third of global trade and could crimp fuel demand.

Also set for Monday is a meeting in Stockholm of senior U.S. and Chinese negotiators aiming to extend before an August 12 deadline a truce holding off sharply higher tariffs.

Oil prices settled on Friday at their lowest in three weeks weighed down by global trade concerns and expectations of more oil supply from Venezuela.

State-run oil company PDVSA is readying to resume work at its joint ventures under terms similar to Biden-era licences, once U.S. President Donald Trump reinstates authorisations for its partners to operate and export oil under swaps, company sources said.

Though prices were up slightly on Monday, gains were limited by the prospect of OPEC+ further easing supply curbs.

A market monitoring panel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies is set to meet at 1200 GMT on Monday.

It is unlikely to recommend altering existing plans by eight members to raise oil output by 548,000 barrels per day in August, four OPEC+ delegates said last week, though another source said it was too early to say.

ING expects OPEC+ will at least complete the full return of 2.2 million barrels per day of the additional voluntary supply cuts by the end of September.

That would work out to a supply hike in September of at least 280,000 barrels per day. However, there is clearly room for a more aggressive hike.

The producer group is keen to recover market share while summer demand is helping to absorb the extra barrels

JP Morgan analysts said global oil demand rose by 600,000 bpd in July on year, while global oil stocks rose 1.6 million bpd.

In the Middle East, Yemen’s Houthis said on Sunday they would target ships of companies that do business with Israeli ports, regardless of nationality, in what they called a fourth phase of military operations against Israel over the Gaza conflict.

(source : https://www.investing.com/)

U.S. stock futures traded marginally higher Tuesday, as investors readied for the highly-anticipated two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting.

By 06:30 ET (10:30 GMT), the Dow Futures contract was up 50 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 Futures traded 7 points, or 0.2%, higher and Nasdaq 100 Futures climbed 20 points, or 0.1%.

Fed’s two-day meeting starts

The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to start its latest meeting later in the session, and is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% when it concludes on Wednesday.

However, the central bank’s plans for the year of the year remain uncertain, especially after headline consumer prices last week recorded the biggest jump in 14 months while core prices decelerated to its slowest rate in almost two years.

Investors will hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the accompanying press conference on Wednesday, where he could provide more context about the Fed’s thinking heading into the fall.

Additionally, the Fed will provide its latest set of economic projections, and the year-end projection for inflation could provide clues about decisions likely to be made at the November and December policy meetings.

OECD lifts U.S. growth forecast

The main U.S. economic data due Tuesday comes from the real estate sector, with August housing starts and building permits both expected to be 1.44 million, small drops from the prior month.

Data from the U.S. of late has tended to point to a resilient economy, leading the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development to lift its forecasts for U.S. growth earlier Tuesday.

The Paris-based body said it now expected the U.S. economy to grow 2.2% this year rather than the 1.6% it forecast in June, and while it sees growth slowing to 1.3% next year, that was still better than the 1.0% for 2024 expected in June.

Instacart to start trading after IPO

In corporate news, earnings are due from auto parts retailer AutoZone (NYSE:AZO), while Instacart is set to start trading on the Nasdaq later Tuesday after the online grocery delivery service priced its initial public offering at the top-end of an upwardly revised target range.

The auto sector will also be in focus after the United Auto Workers union has warned that more U.S. factories would go on strike if no progress is made in talks with automaking giants Ford (NYSE:F), General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Jeep-manufacturer Stellantis (NYSE:STLA).

Crude gains on U.S. shale output fall

Oil prices continued to power ahead Tuesday, rising for the fourth consecutive session, after the Energy Information Administration said U.S. oil output from top shale-producing regions is on track to fall for a third month in a row in October to the lowest level since May 2023.

This has added to worries of a substantial supply deficit this year stemming from extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Industry body American Petroleum Institute releases its forecast of U.S. oil stockpiles later in the session, as a precursor for Wednesday’s official report.

By 06:30 ET, the U.S. crude futures traded 1% higher at $91.45 a barrel, while the Brent contract climbed 0.7% to $95.06.

Prices have gained for three consecutive weeks, and are now around 10-month highs for both benchmarks.

Additionally, gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,957.25/oz, while EUR/USD traded 0.1% higher at 1.0694.

(Source : https://www.investing.com/ )

Oil prices traded sideways on Monday, sticking to their highest levels in nearly four months after major producers Saudi Arabia and Russia extended recent supply cuts, with focus now turning to key inflation readings this week.

Crude markets logged a sixth straight week of gains after the Saudi and Russian cuts last week, buoyed by hopes that tightening supplies will offset a potential slowdown in demand this year.

Expectations of more stimulus measures in major oil importer China also aided sentiment, although economic data continued to paint a bleak picture for the Asian giant.

Brent oil futures steadied around $86.22 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures were flat at $82.78 a barrel by 22:15 ET (02:15 GMT). Both contracts were at their highest levels since mid-April.

Oil aided by supply cuts, OPEC+ meeting offers no surprises

Extended supply reductions by Saudi Arabia and Russia were the biggest source of support for oil markets over the past week, after both countries said they will maintain recent supply cuts until at least end-September.

Saudi Arabia will keep trimming production by 1 million barrels per day (bpd), while Russia will cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd. Both moves were aimed at buoying oil prices, and appear to have had their intended effect so far, with prices up 14% in July.

The production cuts were announced ahead of a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies on Friday, where the cartel kept its output policy unchanged, as unexpected.

Still, the prospect of tighter supplies is expected to support oil prices through the second half of the year. A slew of investment banks recently upgraded their oil price forecasts for 2023, citing tighter supplies.

High oil prices are also expected to offset a potential decline in demand, as the global economy cools from high interest rates and as a Chinese economic recovery slows.

U.S., Chinese inflation readings on tap

Markets are now focused squarely on inflation readings from the U.S. and China, due later this week. U.S. consumer price index inflation is expected to have increased slightly in July, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s target range and potentially attracting more hawkish measures from the central bank.

On the other hand, Chinese inflation is expected to have declined further in July, heralding more near-term weakness in the world’s largest oil importer, as a post-COVID economic recovery runs dry.

Chinese trade data, due on Tuesday, is also expected to provide more insight into crude demand in the country. China’s oil imports have remained close to record highs this year.

( Source : https://www.investing.com/ )

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, recovering a measure of steep losses from the prior session, although caution ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data and the conclusion of a Federal Reserve meeting kept markets on edge.

Crude markets were nursing their worst loss in nearly two weeks as concerns over sluggish demand, worsening economic conditions and a potential boost in Iran-driven supply largely countered the prospect of tighter production after a Saudi cut last week.

Prices saw little scope for recovery as traders remained cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data and a Fed meeting, due on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

Fed, inflation anticipation limit oil recovery

Brent oil futures rose 0.5% to $72.20 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.3% to $67.33 a barrel by 22:07 ET (02:07 GMT). Both contracts slumped between 3.5% and 4% on Monday.

Focus was now squarely on U.S. consumer price index inflation data, due later in the day, which is in turn expected to factor into a Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday.

While markets widely expect the Fed to pause its rate hike cycle, recent strength in the labor market and signs of relatively high inflation kept traders wary of any hawkish surprises from the central bank.

Rising interest rates pressure economic activity, which in turn dents oil and fuel demand. Crude markets were sold off heavily this year on that notion.

Even if the Fed pauses its rate hike cycle, U.S. rates are expected to remain higher for longer this year, pressuring activity. Strength in the dollar, amid high U.S. rates, is also expected to weigh on crude markets.

Demand, supply uncertainty in play

Fears of worsening demand kept traders cautious over buying into crude, following a string of weak economic readings from major economies in the past few months.

Concerns over China have weighed heavily on oil prices in recent months, as investors questioned whether a post-COVID economic rebound was running out of steam.

Weak economic prints from the U.S., coupled with signs of a recession in the euro zone also brewed more concerns over demand this year.

On the other hand, the potential of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal also kept traders cautious over increased supply, especially as Iran’s supreme leader signaled some openness to reaching an agreement.

Still, both Tehran and Washington denied recent reports that a deal was close.

( Source : https://www.investing.com )

Oil prices recovered slightly on Thursday but were unable to claw back the more than 9% decline in the previous three days as demand concerns in major consumers overrode signals that the U.S. may pause its interest rates increases.

Brent futures 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $72.50 a barrel by 0257 GMT. Since Friday, however, Brent has dropped more than 9% and earlier on Thursday fell to as low as $71.28.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 rose 2 cents, to $68.62 a barrel. WTI dropped almost 11% from Friday to Wednesday’s close and earlier on Thursday fell to as low as $63.64.

Prices have plunged this week amid signs of weak manufacturing growth in China, the world’s largest oil importer, and after the U.S., the world’s biggest oil user, raised interest rates to their highest since 2007 on Wednesday, which threatens future economic growth there.

Still, with some positive growth in the U.S. services sector and expectations that output cuts by major producers that started this month will limit supply, investors and analysts are buying back into the market.

“Oil is starting to find some support as all the bad supply and demand news has been priced in,” said Edward Moya, an analyst at OANDA.

While the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point as expected, it signaled it may pause further increases to give officials time to assess the fallout from recent bank failures and wait for clarity over the dispute over raising the U.S. debt ceiling.

The collapse of the third U.S. bank since March, spurred by their inability to manage rising interest rates, has also weighed overall financial markets.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, started voluntary output cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day at the beginning of this month and those are expected to support the market going forward into the summer peak demand period.

“It seems like OPEC+ will have pressure to finally show they can meet those production cut quotas and possibly be in a position to signal more cuts are coming,” Moya said.

Investors are also awaiting developments from the European Central Bank, which is set to raise interest rates for the seventh meeting in a row on Thursday.

Chinese demand concerns continue to weigh on the market especially after a private sector survey showed on Thursday that factory activity unexpectedly dipped in April due to softer domestic demand.

( Source : https://www.cnbc.com/ )

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that U.S. crude inventories shrank by a slightly bigger-than-expected 2.68 million barrels in the week to April 14. The figure heralds a similar trend in government data due later in the day, and signals tightening supplies as fuel demand picks up due to improving weather.

Oil markets were also cheered by stronger-than-expected Chinese economic growth data, which furthered the notion that a recovery in China will drive oil demand to record highs this year. Travel demand in the country also appeared to be closing in on pre-COVID levels.

But resurgent fears of rising interest rates and slowing economic growth kept sentiment on edge.

Brent oil futures steadied at $84.71 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.1% to $80.86 a barrel by 22:12 ET (02:12 GMT). Both contracts ended largely flat on Tuesday, despite the positive Chinese data.

Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve was the key weight on oil markets, before a string of speakers from the central bank this week. The Fed’s Beige Book report is also due later on Wednesday, and is expected to provide more cues on how the central bank views the current state of the economy.

A rally in oil markets wound down in recent sessions as the prospect of higher interest rates and worsening economic conditions in the West saw investors question just how much demand will recover this year.

Uncertainty over the Fed also rattled markets. Fed Fund futures prices show that markets are pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will hike rates in May, along with a small possibility that the bank hike rates further in June.

This notion strengthened the dollar in recent sessions, weighing on commodities priced in the greenback.

Still, crude prices were trading marginally higher for the year, having rallied sharply in April following a surprise production cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

( Source : https://www.investing.com/ )

Oil prices rose on Wednesday as a drop to three-month lows attracted some bargain buying, while optimism over Chinese demand, following strong economic data and a hike in the OPEC’s outlook for the country, also aided sentiment.

But crude markets were still nursing steep losses this week, as fears of a potential banking crisis in the U.S. drove up concerns that a recession could crimp oil demand this year.

Brent oil futures rose 1.1% to $78.30 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.2% to $72.20 a barrel by 22:31 ET (02:31 GMT). Both contracts recovered from their lowest levels since early-December, also aided by continued weakness in the dollar.

The greenback sank against a basket of currencies as overall U.S. consumer inflation eased as expected in February. Ructions in the banking system also saw markets question whether the Fed will have enough economic headroom to remain hawkish.

Data on Wednesday showed that Chinese industrial production rose slightly less than expected in February. But strong retail sales and higher-than-expected fixed asset investment showed that certain facets of the economy were on a steady path towards recovery.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its forecast for growth in Chinese oil demand this year, citing a relaxation in the country’s anti-COVID policies. The OPEC expects China to drive global oil demand to record highs this year.

But the cartel also warned that slowing growth in the rest of the globe could largely offset a recovery in China. Oil prices plummeted over the past two sessions as fears of a U.S. recession were exacerbated by the collapse of several regional banks.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. core consumer inflation for February pointed to more near-term pressure on the economy, and could also keep the Federal Reserve hawkish despite a potential banking crisis.

Concerns over rising interest rates and slowing economic growth have been the biggest headwinds to oil prices this year, with markets fearing a slowdown in demand as monetary conditions tighten and as major economies grapple with high inflation.

Signs of a potential build in U.S. oil inventories over the past week also presented potential headwinds to oil prices, as industry data showed U.S. crude inventories grew more than expected in the week to March 10. The reading usually heralds a similar trend in official data, which is expected to show a build of 1.18 million barrels later in the day.

( Source : https://www.investing.com/ )

( Source : https://www.cnbc.com/ )

Oil prices rose on Friday and were close to trading positive for the week as the prospect of deeper-than-expected cuts in Russian supplies largely offset concerns that rising interest rates will dampen demand this year.

Crude prices marked a strong recovery from recent losses on Thursday as a Reuters report suggested that Russia plans to cut up to 25% of oil exports from its western ports in March, which is more than the 500,000 barrel per day supply cut announced earlier.

Brent oil futures rose 0.3% to $82.75 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped 0.8% to $75.97 a barrel by 21:06 ET (02:06 GMT). Both contracts were trading down less than 0.5% each for the week, having largely trimmed their initial losses.

The prospect of deeper Russian supply cuts also helped markets look past a bigger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories, which grew for a ninth consecutive week amid slowing consumption in the country.

Fears of a further slowdown in crude demand weighed on oil prices this week, amid a flurry of hawkish signals and economic data. Signs of resilience in the U.S. jobs market, coupled with high inflation readings for January and the fourth quarter bolstered the Fed’s hawkish stance.

Strength in the dollar also weighed on crude markets, given that a stronger greenback makes oil more expensive for international buyers.

Focus is now on a reading on the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – for more cues on monetary policy. The reading is expected to reiterate that inflation remained elevated through January.

Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP data was revised lower on Thursday, indicating that rising interest rates may have had a deeper-than-expected impact on the U.S. economy so far. While slowing growth bodes poorly for crude demand, it could also reduce the economic headroom the Fed has to keep raising rates.

High inflation readings from Singapore, the euro zone, and Japan this week also raised concerns over tightening monetary conditions in the rest of the globe. Oil prices are trading lower for the year amid persistent fears of a global recession this year.

Still, oil bulls are holding out for a recovery in Chinese demand after the world’s largest oil importer relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier this year.

But early economic indicators from the country show that parts of the economy are still struggling in the aftermath of the pandemic.

( Source : https://www.investing.com/ )